Author Topic: What is Forex Backtesting?  (Read 1094 times)

clueless-about-forex

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What is Forex Backtesting?
« on: July 19, 2010, 09:36:05 am »
I was reading through the posts here and came across a term I have been seeing the whole weekend!

What is forex backtesting and forward testing?

Is it any different from a demo account??

How is it done?

Everything I have read says that one should either backtest, forward test or both so I am very interested in how to begin doing such a thing.


forex-scribe

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Re: What is Forex Backtesting?
« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2010, 11:23:58 am »
Forex backtesting is testing a trading system using historical data. In other words, you are trying to see if your choice of system would have in fact, made money if you used it to trade in the past. To do this, people use backtesting software.

Forward testing is essentially trading with a demo account. You use current data to test your system.

There are two basic arguments regarding the choice of method.

Backtesting will show without a doubt, if your system would have made you money based on past market movements. Now the question of whether the market will move the same way is where the doubt comes in. However, a system that consistently makes gains using different periods for backtesting can be safely assumed to be a viable one. Moreover, backtesting allows faster simulation compared to forward since all the data is present.

Forward testing on the other hand might be more relevant if there has been a major change in the currency markets, or global economic balance. This would be a scenario not unlike today. It is argued that forward testing is the most accurate determinant of trading viability for the current times. However, the disadvantage here is the longer period of evaluation.

Hope this helps  :)

forex-scribe

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Re: What is Forex Backtesting?
« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2010, 09:11:40 pm »
One last caveat about backtesting is this observation that has been noted by many traders.

Even if you have a group of people trading the same system and the same currency pair, you get a relatively wide variance in the results whereas the normal presumption is that they would essentially get the same since they are trading with the same system.

They refer to random chance as the factor behind the variance which is something to keep in mind, when comparing your results to your buddies   :)

atenean

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Re: What is Forex Backtesting?
« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2010, 01:09:08 pm »
Given the disadvantages and other caveats about forex backtesting, is it still recommended, or is it better to just do forward testing and trade on demo accounts?

Anyone here who has experienced first hand the value of backtesting and forward testing?

forex-scribe

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Re: What is Forex Backtesting?
« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2010, 11:03:08 am »
My take on this matter is that the only thing predictable about markets are their unpredictability. Yes there are general trends a lot of them based on fundamentals, rather than technical which are for the most part predictable.

The problem comes in when you do forward testing and you get a good result now and proceed to trade using the same principles utilized during forward testing.

What if at the point where you enter the market the whole scenario changes, something which is not unlikely given the volatility of markets these days?

After all one moment we hear that the market is upbeat because of some news regarding jobs. the next thing you know the stocks taking a dive taking foreign exchange along with them because of a terrorist attack on oil refineries.

The bottom-line is that as far as back testing or forward testing is concerned, most of their value lies in developing our instincts and understanding about market forces.

Using it to test an automated trading system is different because with such a system you really have to trust the parameters that were put into it.

In such a case the value of testing lies only in being able to provide an idea about the success rate of the system for the given range of scenarios under which it was tested.

Does it guarantee a successful system even if all the parameters changed?

It most definitely does not, but if the system was able to deal with a wide variety of scenarios that it gives you some assurance that it may well be able to cope with another diverse set of parameters.